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NCAA Rankings: Succumbing to the numbers Print
Futures Watch
Written by Steve Wozniak   
Tuesday, January 24, 2012 15:32

We’re not as smart as computers, and computers right now are saying the best college hockey team in the country sits a stone’s throw from Fenway Park. We won’t argue and stir the pot, though Boston may stir up the Beanpot in the coming weeks.

Let’s all say it together: polls are useless. At least they are this time of the year.

When the NCAA Tournament selection committee meets in less than two months, it really won’t care where teams are ranked by U.S. College Hockey Online, USA Today, Inside College Hockey or even us. They’ll lean on the Pairwise rankings, a complex algorithm that compares teams against each other on the basis of RPI, head-to-head records, records against common opponents and records against teams with an RPI above .500.

So while teams like Union may be darlings of the pollsters – the Dutchmen are currently 14th in the USCHO poll and 13th in the eyes of USA Today voters – they’re only tied for 20th in the Pairwise, which would leave them without an at-large bid to the big dance. Northern Michigan, which both major polls feel is only the 19th-best team in the country, is 10th in the Pairwise, making them one of a whopping seven CCHA conference teams that would get a bid if the season ended today.

With that in mind, we’ll leave our opinions at the door and track where teams sit in the Pairwise rankings. Feel free to wonder why the BCS hasn’t picked up on this yet.

Just about guaranteed a berth…

Boston University1. Boston University (15-6-1): The Terriers didn’t just sweep Providence, they destroyed the Friars by a combined score of 14-1. BU has now won five in a row and 12 of its last 14.

2. Minnesota-Duluth (17-4-3): The Bulldogs may have a couple cupcakes next on the schedule in Michigan Tech and Alaska-Anchorage, but squeaking out a pair of one-goal wins over Alabama-Huntsville can’t inspire much confidence.

3. Mass-Lowell (14-6-3): The River Hawks have the fourth-most potent offense in Division I, averaging 3.55 goals per game. What’s more remarkable is that they’re doing it with just one viable NHL prospect. Granted, freshman and Penguins seventh-rounder Scott Wilson is leading the team with 11 goals and 20 points.

4. Ohio State (14-7-4): The Buckeyes can be thankful for a roaring start to the season. They haven’t won since the calendar flipped, going 0-3-3 in January.

5. Notre Dame (14-9-3): The only two other teams in the top nine that the Irish haven’t beaten this season are Mass-Lowell and Merrimack. Probably because they're the only teams in the top 9 the Irish haven't faced.

6. Michigan (15-9-4): What’s surprising for a Red Berenson-coached team is the Wolverines’ current 15.7 percent success rate on the power play. That ranks them just 43rd out of 58 teams in Division I. 

Just need to keep on keeping on…

7. Ferris State (15-8-3): The Bulldogs have followed up a 1-5-0 December with a 4-0-2 January. That’s currently the second-longest unbeaten streak in the country.

8. Merrimack (13-5-5): After starting the season 9-0-1, the Warriors have since failed to string two wins together. They’ll get their next shot for that elusive winning streak Sunday against Providence.

9. Boston College (14-10-1): Historically, the Eagles have started a bit slow and then become nearly unbeatable through the second half of the season. This time, though, BC is following up a strong first half with a 1-3-1 record in January. They were absolutely manhandled by Maine last weekend.

10. Northern Michigan (11-8-5): The Wildcats haven’t lost at home since November. Unfortunately, only four of their remaining 10 regular-season games are on the Olympic-size sheet at the Berry Event Center.

11. Cornell (11-4-4): Last season, the ECAC qualified three teams for the tournament. Right now in the conference, only the Big Red – riding an NCAA-best seven-game unbeaten streak – would qualify for an at-large berth.

12. Denver (13-8-3): The Pioneers are expecting star forward and Penguins prospect Beau Bennett back next weekend, as well as star goalie and Panthers prospect Sam Brittain. That’s good, because Denver’s final month and a half of the season includes a murderer’s row of Colorado College, Minnesota and North Dakota.

On the bubble…

13. Minnesota (17-9-1): Just when goalie and Avalanche prospect Kent Patterson gets back in a groove, the offense suddenly goes cold, scoring more than two goals just twice in the last six games.

14. Michigan State (13-9-4): Four of the Spartans’ final five regular-season series are against No. 4 Ohio State, No. 5 Notre Dame, No. 6 Michigan and No. 7 Ferris State. That’s enough to push this team into a top seed – or miles off the tournament bubble.

15. Miami (14-10-2): The goaltending has caught fire at the right time for the RedHawks. They’re 5-1-0 in their last six, giving up just seven goals in those six games. 

Thank God for automatic bids…

16. RIT (14-8-2): Perhaps it’s an indictment of its conference, but the Tigers are the only team in Atlantic Hockey with an RPI of more than .500.

Need some help…

17. Colorado College (14-9-1): The Tigers won’t get far in the postseason with a defense that allows 2.83 goals per game, 38th best in Division I.

18. Western Michigan (12-9-5): The Broncos got swept by defending champion Minnesota-Duluth, but made up for it by sweeping Notre Dame. Last weekend’s sweep at the hands of Miami, though, knocked them off the bubble. WMU may have to sweep Ohio State at home in three weeks to get back in the mix.

19. Maine (12-8-3): The Black Bears reversed what was looking like an ugly season with a 9-2-1 run since Thanksgiving. Reality check comes next weekend when they visit top-ranked Boston University for a pair.

20. North Dakota (13-10-2): The Sioux are looking at missing the NCAA Tournament for the first time in 10 seasons. The only remaining series where they can make up some ground – a pair against both Denver and Minnesota-Duluth – both come on the road. 

Early Bracketology

Northeast Regional (Worcester, Mass.)

1 Boston vs. 4 RIT

2 Merrimack vs. 3 Northern Michigan

East Regional (Bridgeport, Conn.)

1 Mass-Lowell vs. 4 Michigan State

2 Ferris State vs. 3 Boston College

Midwest Regional (Green Bay, Wis.)

1 Minnesota-Duluth vs. 4 Miami

2 Notre Dame vs. 3 Denver

West Regional (St. Paul, Minn.)

1 Ohio State vs. 4 Minnesota

2 Michigan vs. 3 Cornell 

Three Stars 

Matt Mangene, Maine

The week: The undrafted junior had four goals in the sweep of Boston College, including a hat trick in Saturday’s 7-4 beatdown.

Fun fact: After destroying the Boston College men’s hockey team, Matt could follow his sister Meagan, who plays defense for the Boston College women’s hockey team.

Barry Almeida, Boston College

The week: Intent on mirroring Mangene, the undrafted senior also had four goals, including a hat trick in Saturday’s loss to Maine.

Fun fact: Has been using Twitter to try and play matchmaker for teammate and senior goalie Chris Venti.

Matt Nieto, Boston University

The week: The San Jose Sharks prospect had two goals, four assists and a plus-3 in the resounding sweep of Providence.

Fun fact: Also played for the LA Selects while growing up in his native Long Beach, Calif.

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Last Updated on Wednesday, January 25, 2012 01:25