Don't like the way the rankings in the NCAA look? Just wait five minutes and they'll likely change. This week sees Maine and Ferris State on top, while traditional powerhouses like Minnesota and North Dakota see themselves slipping to the middle of the pack.
(1).png) The state of Minnesota has long considered itself the epicenter of U.S. hockey, though there has, for just as long, been legitimate debate from Michigan and Massachusetts that they deserve that title.
While the debate may rage on in perpetuity without any clear answer, this much we know: those three states are home for the top eight teams in the latest Pairwise rankings used to select and seed NCAA Tournament teams. No one would be surprised if any of those eight teams ended up lifting the trophy in Tampa this April with the yearlong bragging rights that accompany it.
And while Massachusetts may have four teams among the top eight – Boston, Boston College, UMass-Lowell and Merrimack – the state’s 10 Division I schools combine for only a winning percentage of .523 through Sunday’s games. Minnesota’s five Division I teams combine for a .541 winning percentage, and Michigan’s seven schools are at .573. They all trail Colorado, where Denver, Colorado College and Air Force are a combined 44-25-12 (.617).
Now that we’ve fueled a interstate trash-talking war, it’s on to this week’s power rankings:
Projected Tournament Field
1. Maine (16-8-3): In mid-November, the Black Bears looked like dead men walking. But a 13-2-1 run since Thanksgiving has made Maine the scariest team to face down the stretch. In their current seven-game unbeaten streak, the Bears have tied Merrimack and swept Boston and Boston College. Tim Whitehead should get a lot of talk for Coach of the Year, and the Hobey Baker campaign for red-hot Spencer Abbott is gaining steam.
2. Ferris State (18-8-4): The Bulldogs’ NCAA-best unbeaten streak is now at 10 games. We knew the defense and goalies Taylor Nelson and C.J. Motte were good. Now the offense is finally joining in the fun; Ferris State is averaging 3.6 goals per game during its current streak.
3. Michigan (17-9-4): The Wolverines are a great example of the ebbs and flows of any hockey season. Since dropping five straight in late November and early December, Michigan has been rolling on a 10-1-2 run. They’re allowing just 1.54 goals per game in that streak, propelling goalie Shawn Hunwick back into any conversation about the Hobey Baker Award.
4. Boston University (17-8-1): They recovered after being swept by Maine to put on a dominating performance against Merrimack. A home-and-home against UMass-Lowell in less than two weeks looms real large on the Hockey East schedule now. As we write this, the Terriers are atop the conference standings, with the upstarts from Lowell just one point behind with a game in hand.
5. Mass-Lowell (18-7-0): Take the River Hawks’ latest surge with a grain of salt. They haven’t faced a team with a winning record since beating Boston College 3-2 back on Dec. 9. Their next six games are against Merrimack, Maine and Boston University, who have a combined 47-22-9 record. Ouch.
6. Minnesota-Duluth (18-6-4): The Bulldogs long ago lost their lead in the WCHA to cross-state rivals Minnesota. Now Jack Connolly lost his NCAA scoring lead after big weekends by Maine’s Abbott and Colgate’s Austin Smith. Despite having the fewest defeats in Division I, UMD suddenly looks very beatable. And the team that gets to test that beatability is a surging and fired-up North Dakota squad.
7. Minnesota (19-9-1): Goalie Kent Patterson is back in his groove, giving up less than three goals in each of the last six games. But Erik Haula is in a rut. After tallying 17 points in his first seven games, Haula has just three assists in his last eight games.
8. Boston College (17-10-1): The Eagles’ out-of-conference schedule has included games with Denver, North Dakota, Notre Dame, Yale, Michigan and Michigan Tech. And yet somehow, they still have only the second toughest schedule in the country behind Northern Michigan.
9. Union (16-6-7): Undrafted senior forward Kelly Zajac has improved each season he’s spent in Schenectady after tallying 20 points as a freshman. And with 35 points in 29 games, he’s on pace to break last season’s career-high 42 points.
10. Merrimack (15-6-5): Only two Warriors regulars – freshmen forwards Clayton Jardine and Kyle Singleton – have negative plus/minus ratings.
11. Notre Dame (16-11-3): Last season, the Irish made a surprising run to the Frozen Four behind a bevy of talented freshmen. They haven’t lost a step. The sophomore skaters on this year’s squad have scored 45 of the team’s 87 goals.
12. Michigan State (15-11-4): The Spartans are sharing the load as a team. Nine players have at least five goals, and 12 have tallied at least 10 points. Even goalies Will Yanakeff and Drew Palmisano, each posting goals-against averages under 3.00 and save percentages north of .910 while platooning.
13. North Dakota (15-10-2): The Sioux have long been known for their offensive depth, but this season, it’s missing. Only five players have tallied more than five goals. North Dakota needs some support behind the dynamic duo of Islanders prospect Brock Nelson and Montreal Canadiens draftee Danny Kristo.
14. Northern Michigan (12-10-6): How tough is the CCHA this season? The Wildcats are the 13th best team in the country according to the Pairwise rankings, but sit in ninth place in the CCHA conference standings.
15. Ohio State (14-10-5): The season is looking like it’s starting to spiral out of control for the Buckeyes. Since defeating Robert Morris 4-2 back on Dec. 30, the Ohio State has gone into an 0-6-4 tailspin. Giving up 29 goals in their last eight games has to cause a lot of worry in Columbus.
16. Air Force (14-7-6): We could have yet another oddity that creates some controversy with using the Pairwise rankings. To qualify as a “team under consideration” for tournament berths, a team must have an RPI of .500 or better. Right now, no team in Atlantic Hockey meets that threshhold, but the conference’s automatic bid has to go to someone. We’ll assume it goes to the Falcons, who hold a one-point lead over Mercyhurst for first place in the standings.
On the bubble
17. Colorado College (15-9-2): The Tigers have had exactly one losing streak this season, dropping two in a row to North Dakota back on Thanksgiving weekend.
18. Denver (15-9-4): The Pioneers, with the sixth-best offense in the country, are hoping last weekend’s woeful two-goal performance in a weekend series with Colorado College was just a blip.
19. Miami (15-13-2): The RedHawks may have a pretty good duo in the crease, but the offense continues to struggle. The power play unit ranks 49th out of 58 Division I teams after converting on just 13 percent of its chances.
20. Western Michigan (14-11-5): The Broncos have the worst offense among the Top 20. With just 2.67 goals per game, Western Michigan’s offense ranks 42nd.
THREE STARS
Austin Smith, Colgate
The week: Sure, the Dallas Stars prospect was held scoreless on Friday night at Union, but his four-goal game the next night against Rensselaer is noteworthy enough.
Fun fact: He’s made our Three Stars more often than any other player this season.
Spencer Abbott, Maine
The week: With two goals and five assists in a sweep of Alabama-Huntsville, the undrafted senior roared into the NCAA scoring lead with 47 points.
Fun fact: Is majoring in Child Development and Family Relations. Aren’t kids supposed to be scared of Black Bears?
J.T. Brown, Minnesota-Duluth
The week: The undrafted sophomore had five goals against Alaska-Anchorage, including all four in Friday’s 4-1 win.
Fun fact: Like Smith, he’s a repeat guest on this list. We’re running out of things to say.
EARLY BRACKETOLOGY
East Regional (Bridgeport, Conn.)
1 UMass-Lowell vs. 4 Michigan State
2 Boston College vs. 3 Union
Northeast Regional (Worcester, Mass.)
1 Boston vs. 4 Northern Michigan
2 Merrimack vs. 3 Notre Dame
Midwest Regional (Green Bay, Wis.)
1 Michigan vs. 4 Air Force
2 Minnesota-Duluth vs. 3 Ohio State
West Regional (St. Paul, Minn.)
1 Ferris State vs. 4 North Dakota
2 Minnesota vs. 3 Maine
Photo by Steve Babineau
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