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NCAA realignment could spell trouble Print
Futures Watch
Written by Steve Wozniak   
Friday, November 04, 2011 12:49

College hockey is fighting its own subtle class warfare, where the good teams are getting better and the smaller schools will face even more obstacles. Is this really good for the game? 

Steve WozniakCollege hockey just got a nice national television coverage package with NBC Sports and Versus. Arenas and baseball stadiums are selling out from Denver to Boston. NHL prospects are heading to the NCAA in record numbers. It would seem that Division I hockey is experiencing a sort of golden age. And perhaps it is.

But not all is well.

Alabama-Huntsville last month became Division I college hockey’s latest fatality, and most in the sport just shrugged their shoulders. It wasn’t, after all, any big surprise. UAH had been the lone independent, left homeless after the dissolution of College Hockey America two years ago, kept homeless after being publicly shot down by the CCHA membership committee.

But the reasons for Alabama-Huntsville’s departure are much more complex than just a lack of conference affiliation.

In a nutshell, the program was losing too much money. There were no TV revenues to speak of, the team was averaging less than 1,300 fans at its home games, and the travel expenses from the Deep South to, well, any other school were far too prohibitive. In an age of ever-increasing austerity, the Chargers’ hockey program just couldn’t show the school’s board of trustees the money.

It may not end in Alabama.

Several other Division I teams are sucking cash and bleeding red ink. And with the summertime craze of jumping off and on the merry-go-round of conference realignment now finally behind us, some of those financial pictures are about to get bleaker. Because for all the back-patting over Penn State’s elevation to Division I, the subsequent formation of the Big Ten hockey conference and the responsive creation of the National Collegiate Hockey Conference, the five teams slated to join Penn State in the Big Ten hockey conference in less than two years have no worries.

Television revenues from the Big Ten Network will add to coffers. Attendance is booming. Among 58 Division I teams last season, Wisconsin ranked first in average attendance (13,226), Michigan was second (12,291), Minnesota fourth (9,544), Michigan State 11th (5,353) and Ohio State 18th (3,829). In fact, Michigan’s hockey program reportedly outearned the Wolverines’ men’s basketball team.

The eight teams moving to the National Collegiate Hockey Conference also have no worries.

Potential TV deals with Fox College Sports, CBS College Sports and maybe even Versus will give North Dakota, Nebraska-Omaha, Colorado College, St. Cloud State, Minnesota-Duluth, Denver, Miami and Western Michigan more money to help build their programs. Those teams ranked in attendance, respectively, third, fifth, sixth, eighth, ninth, 12th, 25th and 27th. With marquee matchups covering most of the schedule, those numbers are sure to increase.

So everything’s fabulous. Penn State brings its reputation and, more importantly, its huge alumni base into college hockey. There should be at least one, if not more, matchup of top 20 teams each weekend. More eyes will find their way to TVs and more rear ends will find their way to seats in college arenas.

Unfortunately, the teams at schools like Ferris State and Minnesota State are in for a rude awakening.

While Ferris State doesn’t have much of a tradition outside of proud alumnus and Penguins winger Chris Kunitz, it can still draw some good prospects. That’s because prospects know they’ll get the chance to play teams like Michigan, Miami and Notre Dame a few games each year. And fans always manage to pack tiny Ewigleben Arena for games against those teams.

But in two years, all that will be gone. Instead of facing players like Ryan Miller and Ryan Kesler as Ferris State players once did, the Bulldogs will battle rosters of nobodies and whodays. Same with Minnesota State, or Michigan Tech, or any of the other six teams sentenced to irrelevance in the forthcoming rendition of the WCHA.

Things are even worse for Atlantic Hockey.

Already the only conference without a single NHL draft pick on any of its rosters, the conference has continually failed to qualify a second team for the NCAA Tournament beyond its automatic bid. Nine of the 11 teams with the worst attendance last season came from Atlantic Hockey. Heck, three teams – Sacred Heart, Bentley and American International – averaged less than 400 per game. That’s not a formula for self-sustaining revenue. And the gap that exists between Atlantic Hockey and the big conferences – Wisconsin, Michigan and North Dakota each drew more fans last season by themselves than the 12 teams in Atlantic Hockey combined – is only going to get bigger.

As more exposure falls on Hockey East, the NCHC and Big Ten conferences, more top-line recruits will follow, which in turn will draw more exposure and perpetuate the cycle. In the meantime, the WCHA and Atlantic Hockey will be pushed to the margins, teams will continue to lose money (and in some cases, lose even more money), and eventually we may see Division I hockey reduced from 58 squads to about 40 premium teams.

But let’s be honest; the big conferences are in the hockey business for the money, for a chance to be AHL Jr. and cash in to build their empires further. The small schools in a conference like Atlantic Hockey are doing it for kicks and giggles, or to provide an image of diverse activities and opportunities available on their campuses. That may be a good motivation, but it’s bad business.

Alabama-Huntsville wasn’t a sad anomaly. It was a harbinger of things to come. The CCHA is already the walking dead, its demise predetermined to coincide with the 2013 Frozen Four. Atlantic Hockey and the WCHA may not be far behind.

The following tables show how the power, talent and exposure will shift dramatically after conference realignments take effect in 2013.

CURRENT NHL DRAFT PICKS BY CONFERENCE

 

Current alignment

Future alignment

ATLANTIC HOCKEY

0

0

BIG TEN

--

43

CCHA

43

--

ECAC

38

38

HOCKEY EAST

46

56

NCHC

--

57

WCHA

73

6

CURRENT AVERAGE ATTENDANCE BY CONFERENCE

 

Current alignment

Future alignment

ATLANTIC HOCKEY

1,161

1,161

BIG TEN

--

9,181

CCHA

3,792

--

ECAC

2,570

2,570

HOCKEY EAST

4,013

3,890

NCHC

--

6,197

WCHA

6,874

2,733

Notes

NBC Sports Network, the new moniker for Versus after Jan. 1, will carry 16 college hockey games this season to be featured on Friday nights. The debut will take place on New Year’s Eve when Notre Dame hosts Boston University. Eleven other regular-season games will follow before NBCSN carries the Hockey East playoffs in March. Of the 12 regular-season games, four are ECAC contests, four will feature WCHA teams, two are Hockey East tilts with one CCHA game and the premiere interconference clash. … Don’t count Alabama-Huntsville out yet. According to a story in the Huntsville Times, Alabama state representative Phil Williams has been told that private donors will fund the team’s budget and that Williams has a meeting scheduled with Alabama governor Robert Bentley to discuss saving the team’s Division I status. … Since the Jan. 7 Hockey East doubleheader at Fenway Park sold out so quickly, Fenway will keep the rink intact for another week, so that Boston College and Northeastern can do battle there a week later on Jan. 14. The first doubleheader features Vermont, Maine, New Hampshire and Massachusetts. … The last idle team finally hits the ice this weekend when Harvard (0-0-0) hosts Princeton and Quinnipiac.

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Last Updated on Friday, November 04, 2011 20:15