If Kovalchuk – the crown jewel of a thin free-agent class – doesn’t land in Los Angeles, consider it a surprise at this point. How do the Kings’ Pacific foes plan to counter?

 

At least Scott Niedermayer made his mind up early.

The future Hall of Fame defenseman informed GM Bob Murray of his retirement earlier this week, making it easy to identify this team’s most pressing need. Anaheim was rumored to be in the running for veteran defenseman Keith Ballard before the Florida Panthers traded him to the Vancouver Canucks on Friday. Although the Ducks landed a Niedermayer prototype (Cam Fowler) in the first round of the Entry Draft, Fowler probably isn’t ready to be a number one defenseman at 18 years old.

Anaheim has the salary-cap space to make a run at 36-year-old Sergei Gonchar, who produced 50 points in 62 games last season in the final year of a contract that paid $5 million. Paul Martin and Pavel Kubina are the other top free agents on a short list of offensively gifted defensemen. The Ducks haven’t (yet) made a play for Maple Leafs defenseman Tomas Kaberle, who is being openly shopped by Toronto GM Brian Burke.

Looking internally, Anaheim would be left with a gaping hole among their top-six forwards if impending free agents Saku Koivu, Teemu Selanne and Bobby Ryan leave. Selanne hasn’t made up his mind about retirement, talks with Koivu aren’t close to consummation, and Murray has pledged to match any offer sheet for Ryan if the 23-year-old forward isn’t signed before he hits restricted free agency.

 

It’s tough to imagine a Stars team without Marty Turco and Mike Modano, but that’s looking more and more like a reality as July 1 approaches. Turco will probably seek No. 1 goalie money on the market, something Dallas won’t offer with Kari Lehtonen under long-term contract and first-round draft pick Jack Campbell the heir apparent.

The more complicated question is what to do with Modano, the face of the franchise since the Minnesota North Stars drafted him No. 1 overall in 1988. Modano said he feels “around 75” percent confident he’ll play next season but it’s becoming less likely that will be in Dallas.

Jere Lehtinen is the other key in-house free agent, and it’s unknown if the Stars will try to keep him, as well as RFA defensemen Nicklas Grossman and Matt Niskanen. If he hasn't done so already, expect GM Joe Nieuwendyk to make a qualifying offer to forward James Neal, who has scored 24 and 27 goals, respectively, in his first two NHL seasons.

The current payroll is low, with just $40.9 million committed to 17 players, but Dallas is unlikely to push the $59.4 million cap ceiling with the team up for sale. There also needs to be room to re-sign stud center Brad Richards when his contract expires in 2011.

 

The main roadblock standing between the Kings and Kovalchuk, it seems, is the New Jersey Devils. ESPN.com reports that the Devils remain interested in trying to re-sign Kovalchuk in the few days before he hits the open market, and are so far unwilling to deal his negotiating rights.

After years of pledging to be aggressive players in the free-agent market, the Kings have few excuses for not pushing the envelope with Kovalchuk. Not only do they have the cap space, but young defensemen Drew Doughty and Jack Johnson will hit paydirt as restricted free agents in a year. The Cup window in L.A. may never be wider.

Without Kovalchuk, Los Angeles was still a 101-point team last season. GM Dean Lombardi could do worse than re-signing free agent winger Alexander Frolov, a King since 2002 who might find his best offer in the KHL. The Kings also need a second- or third-pair defenseman, as impending free agents Sean O’Donnell and Randy Jones won’t both be brought back.

 

Despite all the attention paid to the Coyotes’ payroll, funded last season by the other 29 NHL teams, one important fact was lost: They’ve already got a pretty good team coming back next year.

Forward Scottie Upshall, who scored 18 goals in a season shortened by injuries to 49 games, has already re-signed along with veteran defenseman Adrian Aucoin. High-scoring forwards Shane Doan and Wojtek Wolski, leading defensemen Keith Yandle and Ed Jovanovski, and cornerstone goalie Ilya Bryzgalov are all under contract for at least another year.

 

Here’s the part you’ve probably already heard: Phoenix has a long free-agent list that includes Lee Stempniak, Matthew Lombardi, Martin Hanzal and Zbynek Michalek – all key pieces in the Coyotes’ stunning 107-point season. All can probably find more money on the open market, and it wouldn’t be surprising if Upshall and Aucoin wind up the only key players brought back.

Even if the ownership situation is settled, there’s no reason to believe Phoenix will significantly increase a payroll that has $40.6 million currently committed to 19 players. Reinforcements are likely to be found within the organization, and GM Don Maloney may be counting on a season spent in the AHL to pay dividends for forward prospects Kyle Turris and Mikkel Boedker.

Losing Lombardi and Stempniak would be tough on an attack already thin on scorers – but hey, this team wasn’t expected to make the playoffs last season, either.

 

General manager Doug Wilson broke the hearts of the league’s deep-pocketed executives when he re-signed forwards Patrick Marleau and Joe Pavelski last week.

But by doing so Wilson had to sacrifice the services of unrestricted free agent Evgeni Nabokov, the Sharks’ No. 1 goalie since 2000 whose most likely destination is Philadelphia. Finding a replacement for Nabokov is the biggest task facing the Sharks, one that will determine whether or not fans can expect their team to improve on a 2009-10 season that ended in the Western Conference Finals.

Turco is generally considered the next-best free agent goalie available and is a longtime Sharks killer (career: 24-14-1-4, 2.26 GAA, .914 save percentage). But he’ll be 35 in August and might be asking for more than the Sharks are willing to pay. The next tier includes Antero Niitymaki, Chris Mason, Dan Ellis, Jose Theodore, Michael Leighton and Ray Emery.

Faceoff expert Scott Nichol and depth defenseman Niclas Wallin also re-upped with the Sharks, who would like to bring back veteran forward Manny Malhotra and qualify RFA winger Devin Setoguchi, if they haven’t already.

With Nabokov on the way out of the division, and possibly Kovalchuk on the way in, the Sharks can’t be considered a lock to win their fourth straight Pacific Division title. Nothing in hockey was ever won on July 1, but these teams will hardly ever feel more in control of their own destiny.

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